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Panel Publishers February 1999, By
Kenneth Robertson, CIMA, CPC
There are three principal types of
return:
•
Time-weighted average return (or the geometric mean or the total return);
•
Dollar-weighted average return (or the internal rate of return);
•
Arithmetical average return (or the arithmetical mean).* Such returns can be remarkably
different. Consider the following data.
| Year |
Fund
Return |
Amount
Invested |
Gain/Loss |
| 1 |
100% |
$1,000 |
$1,000 |
| 2 |
-10% |
$8,000 |
-$1,000
|
Here are the different returns for
the data:
| Time-weighted
return |
34.2% |
| Dollar-weighted
return |
0.0% |
| Average return |
45.0%
|
Time-weighted returns ignore cash
inflows and outflows. They look at the return of $1.00 over the
period reviewed. One dollar invested in the above fund would have
grown from $1.00 to $2.00 at the end of the first year, and then would
have lost 20¢ at the end of the second year, for a
net gain of 80¢ on the $1.00 investment. Since the calculation is
only "weighted for time" (i.e., the beginning and ending date)
it is called "time weighted." It grew 80% over two years,
for an annualized return of 34.2%. In other words, a compounded
return of 34.2% over two years would result in an 80¢ gain.
The time-weighted
return is the appropriate measure for comparing fund performance, and
under security regulations it is the only approved method of calculating
returns.
As illustrated above,
dollar-weighted returns can be remarkably different than the other two
types of returns. This is due to the fluctuating prices of risky
assets. Indeed, the riskiest funds or portfolios have the greatest
potential for large differences between this calculation and the other two
types of return. Dollar-weighted returns depend on the timing
and the amount of the cash flows in and out of the investment. In
other words, they are weighted for each dollar inflow and outflow. In the above hypothetical fund, the initial investment grows from $1,000
to $2,000 in the first year (a 100% gain). One can imagine an
investor liking that return, and so they add $8,000 at the beginning of
Year 2, bringing their balance to $10,000. At the end of year 2, the
10% loss reduces their account by $1,000. Thus, their
dollar-weighted return is 0%, since they invested a total $9,000. Dollar-weighted returns are not relevant to fund evaluation (the fund is
not responsible for the timing and amount of the investments), but they do
answer the question "What was my 401(k) account's rate of
return?"
Dollar-weighted returns on
individual options are irrelevant at best. At the fund level,
comparisons should be based on time-weighted returns. But on the
portfolio level, dollar-weighted returns can be quite helpful. They
play a valuable role in the periodic evaluation of one's investment
program through comparing one's actual return to the expected return
assumed by the investment program.
In short, the return on your
account will not equal the reported returns for the funds that you are
invested in because your investment occurs several times a month
throughout the whole year. Therefore, to compare on a quarter to
quarter basis the S & P Index or the Dow with your return is not
relevant. Over a three or five year period it becomes very relevant
in assessing the way your portfolio is invested.
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